PRN Melaka bukan kayu ukur kekuatan nasional, kata penganalisis

Analysts say a one-man race for Melaka in the 2016 General Election (PRN) is unrealistic, suggesting that it cannot accurately measure the strength of individual parties. Azmi Hassan, from the Nusantara Academy, remarked that the 28 DUN (Dunia Uni) constituency in Melaka may not reflect support at the national level, citing low voter turnout percentages.

He raised questions about the interpretation of PRN results as a sign of nationwide support when voter turnout is low. The proposal to use Melaka as a measuring stick is deemed impractical, according to Azmi, who spoke to FMT about the plan proposed by former Batu Pahat MP Puad Zarkashi. Former Chief of Umno, Puad, had suggested the possibility of a one-man contest in Melaka following the BN's victory in the Negeri Sembilan PRN on August 1.

However, the Umno leadership had opened dialogue with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and took time to confirm cooperation with PN and PAS. PAS President Hadi Awang claimed that PAS and BN have already agreed to work together in Melaka. Meanwhile, PH has been linked to speculation of a potential alliance with Bersatu, which is increasingly sidelined within the opposition coalition despite still being a component of the opposition alliance.

Azmi noted that the political landscape post-PRU15 makes cooperation among parties more crucial when no single party has sufficient support to form a federal government alone. "No political party wants to take the risk of contesting alone if there is potential for cooperation to achieve agreement," he said. Lau Zhe Wei, from Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia (UIAM), acknowledged that a one-man race might seem plausible theoretically but would be difficult to execute in reality.

He questioned whether a contest could truly reflect voter intent in a first-past-the-post system, where the candidate with the most votes wins the seat. Lau pointed to the possibility of voters supporting two different parties (e.g., Umno and PAS) and being forced to choose one if they are contesting separately. This could potentially open the door for candidates from other alliances to win those seats.

"Is that reflecting the will of the people? Not necessarily," he said, acknowledging that the BN may have an advantage based on voting patterns in previous elections. However, a three-way contest between BN, PN, and PH could yield unpredictable results, according to Lau.