Polymarket saw $600 million in election trades after the elections were over
Millions kept changing hands long after the election outcomes were effectively settled.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have been hailed as barometers of public opinion, some even likening them to "truth machines." However, their activity can reveal unexpected insights. In 2024, Polymarket’s global election markets saw over $600 million in trading volume, far exceeding typical political markets. This volume primarily stemmed from contracts involving long-shot candidates who ultimately did not win.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party emerged victorious in recent federal elections, securing 438 parliamentary seats and securing Ahmed’s re-election for another five-year term. Despite this, trading volume on Ahmed was relatively modest at $173,000, compared to $41 million on his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, who was favored by markets to become the next leader.
In total, over $285 million was traded on losing candidates, a stark deviation from the norm where frontrunners typically attract more trading activity.
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