Polymarket saw $600 million in election trades after the elections were over
Millions kept changing hands long after the election outcomes were effectively settled.
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, processed a staggering $600 million in election trades following the completion of elections. Typically, such platforms serve as barometers for public opinion or "truth machines," offering a clearer view of future events than traditional polling. In the 2024 US presidential race, Kalshi even outperformed many pollsters in predicting the outcome.
However, Polymarket's trading activity revealed more puzzling insights. Two global election markets on their offshore platform witnessed over $600 million in trading volume, significantly higher than the norm for political markets. The majority of this activity revolved around contracts tied to long-shot candidates who ultimately failed to secure victory.
For instance, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won 438 parliamentary seats and secured a second term, leaving his nearest competitor with a mere 13 seats. On prediction markets, trading volume closely aligns with the odds of a particular outcome, with frontrunners attracting more volume than long shots. Nevertheless, Polymarket's patterns deviated sharply from this standard.
Only $173,000 was wagered on Ahmed winning, while more than $41 million was traded on his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, to become the next leader. The bulk of the trading volume, nearly $285 million, was on losing candidates.
Written by urgent.news from Ars Technica Policy's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
