Oil: Gradual price decline with dark transit support – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists Dr. Jörg Krämer, Dr. Vincent Stamer and colleagues argue that Middle East crude exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels thanks to dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz. They expect high risk premia to fade, with Oil futures falling from about USD 104 toward USD 85 by year-end. Diesel and European natural gas prices should ease more slowly, keeping Euro area…
Commerzbank economists predict a gradual decline in oil prices, with futures prices forecast to drop from around USD 104 to USD 85 by year-end. This anticipated decrease is due to the resumption of Middle East crude exports nearing pre-war levels, facilitated by "dark transits" of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Although high risk premiums currently keep oil prices elevated, they are expected to fade, allowing prices to ease.
Diesel and European natural gas prices are also anticipated to ease more slowly, maintaining elevated Euro area inflation until mid-2027. Despite the ongoing risk, Commerzbank projects that oil prices will fall to around USD 85 by the end of the year as the risks subside.
Written by urgent.news from FXStreet's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
