Midterms 2026: What Comes Next for the US and Europe?

On November 3, the United States will hold midterm elections, with the House of Representatives being up for a full vote and a third of Senate seats up for grabs. President Donald Trump faces significant stakes in this election, as a loss of Republican majority in Congress could severely limit his policy-making capabilities.

European media outlets are closely monitoring how the midterms could impact various aspects of US, Ukrainian, and European affairs. Spanish newspaper El País predicts a possible shift in course following the election, citing historical trends that show voters often punish the president's party during mid-term elections. The Democrats are favored to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains too close to call.

The establishment of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency is highlighted as a significant legislative achievement, allowing the government to attach conditions to its budget and hold officials accountable for abuse. Meanwhile, US expert Lauric Henneton warns of potential attempts by Trump to undermine the election's legitimacy, through various means like misinformation campaigns and legal challenges.

Russia's Radio Kommersant FM speculates that European leaders might be interfering in the US election campaign, specifically targeting Trump's policies towards Europe. The goal appears to be to weaken his position before the 2028 presidential election, hoping that a Democratic candidate could restore unity between the US, Europe, and Ukraine against Russia.

Opposition news website Vot Tak in Russia suggests that Trump may be trying to appeal to his own base by announcing a partial ceasefire, positioning himself as a problem-solver amidst the crisis. However, opposition analysts believe that Trump only needs to convince a portion of Republican voters to believe that he is addressing the situation, even if the underlying issue remains unresolved.

Former World Bank economist István Dobozi, writing in Hungarian newspaper Népszabadság, warns that a major Republican defeat in the midterms could cause significant upheavals in US foreign policy. If Trump suffers a crushing defeat, he might shift his focus from domestic concerns to bolstering his global political legacy, leading to a more unpredictable and potentially dangerous approach, particularly in relations with Iran.