Latin America’s exports are set to grow 20% this year: is a new commodity boom on the horizon?
Recent estimates from ECLAC show that demand for metals such as gold, silver and copper has driven improvements in the region’s trade balance La entrada Latin America’s exports are set to grow 20% this year: is a new commodity boom on the horizon? se publicó primero en Buenos Aires Herald .
The International Trade Outlook from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) suggests that Latin America's exports are poised to increase by 20% this year, potentially indicating the start of a new commodity boom. This projection surpasses the previous forecast of 1.9% growth for the entire year by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The surge in exports can be primarily attributed to a sharp rise in commodity prices, which saw an 11% increase in value terms and a 9% rise in export volumes for the year to date.
The main drivers behind this surge are minerals and metals, with prices expected to increase by 31.6%. Copper, gold, silver, and tin are particularly impacted by this trend. The outlook for the remainder of the year remains positive, with total goods exports anticipated to grow by 20%, driven by an 11% price increase and a 9% rise in export quantities.
The geographical distribution of Latin America's exports is also evolving, with shipments to Asia, excluding China, projecting the highest growth in 2026 at 32% in value terms. Exports to the United States are expected to increase by 24%, followed by the European Union (20%) and China (19%). However, intraregional exports are anticipated to grow by only 8%.
Despite these encouraging signs, ECLAC's Executive Secretary, José Manuel Salazar, is cautious about labeling this current expansion as a new commodity boom akin to the one seen between 2003 and 2014. While the favorable conditions present an opportunity, Salazar stresses that the current scenario is markedly different. Unlike the earlier boom, which was primarily driven by China's industrial demand, the current growth is fueled by the "technological revolution, the need for energy security strategies, and the green transition."
This shift introduces a degree of uncertainty, particularly in relation to minerals like lithium, whose demand could wane if alternative battery technologies emerge. Salazar also points to the challenges associated with extracting and refining rare earth elements, which are abundant in several Latin American countries, underscoring that the region must focus on adding value through technological innovation, rather than merely exporting raw materials.
Written by urgent.news from Buenos Aires Herald's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
