Global Energy Import Dependence Set to Peak by 2034, Rystad Says

Rystad Energy's 2026 Global Energy Scenarios report predicts that global reliance on imported energy will reach its peak by 2034, due to increasing energy security concerns and the acceleration of the energy transition. The report examines three possible future scenarios and discusses how energy import dependence may evolve under different conditions. The current energy system has shown resilience since the oil crises of the 1970s, largely due to the infrastructure built in the aftermath of those shocks.

Following the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, global energy flows have been significantly disrupted, causing significant changes to the energy landscape. Countries such as Europe and Asia are competing for the same limited LNG supplies, which may leave Europe short of winter stockpiles and Asia short of supply. In terms of oil, pipelines, crude on water, storage, and demand response have been crucial, particularly in China.

Energy security has led governments to take various measures, including cutting fuel taxes and introducing demand-reduction measures. The report highlights that nearly 100 countries have implemented these strategies, with 34 countries pursuing structural changes. These changes have included electrification policies, which have become more politically viable in countries like Italy and Japan, where sustainability was not a primary focus before.

The report introduces a new scenario called Pragmatism, which assumes a gradual strengthening of current policies with a focus on affordability, energy security, and technology costs. This scenario balances reliable, affordable, and clean energy, differing from the rapid and coordinated global action in the Climate first scenario and the slower clean-technology progress in the Fossil first scenario.

By 2050, primary energy demand is projected to reach 702 exajoules, while liquids demand will decline by 2.2% annually, and gas demand will decline by 0.9% annually. Despite these challenges, the energy system has managed to absorb the current crisis well, with ample buffers and investment in capacity built after the previous shock.