Flávio Bolsonaro, heredero de una dinastía política brasileña que ahora aspira a la victoria

Flávio Bolsonaro, the younger heir of Brazil's political dynasty, is touted as the frontrunner to defeat incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the October 25th election. During his presidential campaign, Flávio operated out of the same office in Brasilia that his father once used. The residence is adorned with portraits of Jair Bolsonaro in presidential regalia and one showing him praying.

Flávio held meetings on the sofa and chairs but resisted sitting at the desk his father once occupied. President Bolsonaro is a unique figure, always his own guide, he declared to the Financial Times earlier this year. Now, the younger Bolsonaro, at 45, has a strong chance to occupy the same office his father once held, but in the presidential palace.

Following his landslide victory in the first round, he is the favorite to defeat the current president, Lula da Silva, in the second round on October 25th, though two weeks of intense campaigning remain. While analysts do not rule out Lula recovering, there is consensus that Bolsonaro has a clear advantage. The heir to the family business has already demonstrated the solidity of Bolsonarismo as a political movement, akin to the MAGA movement.

When his father was elected in 2018, some attributed his success to his brash, anti-liberal style attracting voters during a time marred by scandals that had discredited much of the elite. However, this election has shown the movement has much deeper roots. Just like Donald Trump in the US, the Bolsonaro clan has shifted Brazilian politics around their right-wing, evangelical instincts, hard-line policies against drug gangs, pro-business rhetoric, and an anti-establishment tone.

Much like Trump in 2024, they could stage a spectacular comeback. Just a year ago, the political future of the dynasty seemed doomed after Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for conspiring to stage a coup after losing the 2022 election. But now, with the family poised to regain power, what's unclear is who will wield the reins this time.

Aware of his surname's political potency, Flávio has sought to praise his father. Throughout his career, he has shown little inclination to follow a different path. A presidential pardon would risk being challenged legally. But even before the second round, allies openly discuss ways to annul Jair's conviction before the inauguration on January 5th, allowing father and son to ascend the Palácio de Planalto together alongside the rest of the family.

Thaís Oyama, author of Tormenta—a book about Jair Bolsonaro—states that due to his temperament, Flávio is unlikely to challenge his father if disagreements arise. While Jair is full of certainties and obsessions, Flávio is different: he listens. Flávio, the eldest of five siblings, was born in Rio de Janeiro and has dedicated much of his adult life to politics: first in Rio's Legislative Assembly and since 2019 as a senator.

In 2019, Rio prosecutors accused him of diverting funds from his firm and using a chocolate shop to launder money. The case was ultimately dismissed in 2022 after the Supreme Court declared much of the evidence inadmissible. Flávio denied the allegations, claiming political motivations. Evangelical, he has been baptized several times, including in the Jordan River in Israel.

Unlike his father, a former army captain who surrounded himself with retired generals during his tenure, Flávio has no direct military ties. If elected, he will meet with his stepmother Michelle and brother Carlos, both currently in the Senate, while his brother Jair Renan and a cousin will hold seats in the House of Representatives.

By temperament, Flávio is the most moderate of the Bolsonaros. His Senate colleagues describe him as a conciliator, a quality crucial for a president who must negotiate complex agreements with Congress. He has made cutting public spending a top priority, hoping it will lower interest rates. The markets have reacted positively to his potential victory, partly because he would have a solid base in Congress.

He has also promised closer cooperation with the Trump administration. The first round election has reinforced Flávio's national projection, and if he can craft a coherent economic plan, it would further solidify his leadership. However, his credibility could be seriously damaged if it appears he is receiving orders from his father.

Jair Bolsonaro will act as a key advisor but will not seek to take the spotlight away from Flávio, stated Gerald Brant, a Miami-based financier who has known Flávio for over a decade. However, he adds that Flávio is fully aware that Jair is the leader of the movement.