Factbox-Brokerages expect next BOJ rate hike in Dec, further tightening in 2027

Following the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates to a 31-year high in September, several major brokerages have forecasted that further tightening may occur in December, with additional hikes planned for 2027. Currently, the policy rate stands at 1.25%, and the central bank's next policy decision is expected on October 30.

J.P. Morgan anticipates four rate hikes, with the first scheduled for December 2026, followed by increases in April and July. Bank of America expects three rate hikes, with the first one in December 2026, and additional hikes in March. Goldman Sachs predicts two rate hikes, set for January and July 2027.

Citigroup forecasts three rate hikes, with the first in December 2026, and more hikes in March. Nomura also expects two rate hikes, one in December 2026 and another in March 2027. Deutsche Bank plans two rate hikes, one in January and the other in April 2027. UBS Global anticipates two rate hikes, one in January and the other in June 2027. Macquarie Bank expects two rate hikes, one in December 2026 and the other in the second quarter of 2027.

TD Bank forecasts four rate hikes, with each increase estimated at 25 basis points (bps) and scheduled roughly once every quarter. The first hike is predicted for December 2026, followed by increases in April, July, and October 2027.