European satellite stocks extend rally as Ukraine flags Starlink curbs

European satellite operator stocks experienced a significant surge on Friday, capitalizing on Ukraine's recent announcement that SpaceX's Starlink had imposed restrictions on its military-grade service. This development has prompted investors to believe that potential tensions between Washington and Kyiv could drive business towards European providers.

Eutelsat, considered the region's strongest competitor to Starlink, surged more than 12% in Paris trading, while its Luxembourg-based rival SES climbed over 5%. Eutelsat had already surged 23.3% on Wednesday following the news, but saw a drop of roughly half by Thursday. Analysts predict that European governments and corporate customers may seek alternative options if access to American-owned space services becomes less reliable.

This shift could potentially benefit European providers as they step into the spotlight as potential substitutes, according to Bernstein analyst Aleksander Peterc. Eutelsat's OneWeb network of low-Earth-orbit satellites is the sole rival to SpaceX in space-based broadband. However, there is a substantial difference in scale, with Starlink operating around 10,000 satellites compared to Eutelsat's 600.

It is important to note that Starlink's customers cannot easily transition to OneWeb, as it would entail installing new terminals and ground infrastructure. OneWeb might provide supplementary capacity, but it is crucial to understand that it is not a straightforward replacement for Starlink. The smaller and differently designed OneWeb constellation could be less suitable for certain defense applications, as pointed out by independent satellite consultant Christian Freiherr von der Ropp.