EU may need to cut winter gas demand by 7% with gas storage at a record seasonal low

The European Union faces a challenge in meeting winter gas demand, with storage levels at a record low of 72.4% as of October 3, the lowest since 2011. Low gas storage levels leave the EU with less of a buffer against potential disruptions in LNG supplies, particularly if a cold snap occurs. IEEFA projects that storage could provide 7.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) less gas to the market this winter than last, requiring the bloc to cut winter gas demand by 7%, or 14 bcm compared to last winter.

This shortfall does not indicate that EU gas storage will run dry this winter, but as storage levels fall, gas will be withdrawn less quickly, making it harder to meet demand during late-winter cold snaps. Ending winter with low stocks would also mean a bigger refill next summer, pushing up prices again. The result is a financial liability for Europe, with estimates suggesting filling gas storage would cost the EU €3 billion.

The price gap for gas has narrowed, making the potential profit from storing gas too small to justify it financially. Consequently, traders are less inclined to fill storage, leading to slower and later injections. Europe's dependence on gas storage has increased over the past two winters, with storage's share of EU winter gas consumption rising from 25% in 2021-22 to 30% in 2025-26, with a five-year high of 33% in 2024-25.

This shift is driven by rising demand and flat imports, forcing Europe to rely more heavily on storage to fill the gap. Reliance on gas storage varies among EU countries, with Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, France, Austria, and Hungary accounting for approximately 80% of total EU gas storage capacity. However, some governments are stepping in to subsidize storage, with the Netherlands approving a €993 million subsidy for EBN Capital and Germany instructing SEFE to store 8 terawatt-hours of gas.