Elon Musk Promised "a Million Robotaxis" by 2020. None Materialized, and a Dedicated Robotaxi Fleet Isn't Expected Until at Least 2027. Here's What That Track Record Means for Tesla's Valuation.
Key PointsMusk originally said that 1 million Robotaxis would be in Tesla's fleet by 2020, but it's nearly seven years later, and the company has just a few hundred.
Tesla reports a significant expansion in its Cybercab fleet in Austin, Texas, growing eightfold in just 30 days to exceed 300 vehicles. Dallas is set to receive Cybercab service soon, following the milestone announcement by Tesla on X. Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla's vice president of artificial intelligence software, confirmed Dallas as the next city to receive Cybercab service.
Tesla's autonomous robotaxis, which do not require a paid driver, operate with two seats and lack a steering wheel or pedals. Roughly 319 Cybercabs and 420 Model Y robotaxis have been registered in Texas as of Oct. 10, indicating a substantial increase in available vehicles for deployment. However, Tesla has not disclosed how many Cybercabs are actively transporting passengers or whether the service is profitable.
Established competition from Waymo adds to the challenge, and regulatory scrutiny over speed limit violations and safety standards could complicate expansion. While an eightfold increase in fleet size in one month is considerable progress, scaling Tesla's robotaxi business remains contingent on profitability, demonstrated rides, and further city expansions.
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