Congress has a plan to stop Trump’s attack on offshore wind. It may not be enough.

The clean energy industry has learned that having the law on their side does not always guarantee victory. Since President Donald Trump began his second term, he has attempted to delay or cancel numerous wind and solar projects, often citing vague "national security" concerns or providing no explanation at all. This has severely impacted the offshore wind industry, leading many developers to accept payments from the administration rather than contest permits.

In response to these attacks, a bipartisan group of senators reached an agreement on a bill called the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act. While the renewable energy sector generally supports the bill, some experts argue that its "project certainty" provisions would not prevent future administrations from blocking clean energy projects, particularly offshore wind turbines.

The bill contains two main provisions related to project certainty. First, it declares that the federal government shall not take any new actions to revoke, rescind, withdraw, terminate, suspend, amend, or alter a project that has already received a permit. This appears to reaffirm the current status quo, as permits are usually not canceled without reason.

However, the bill goes further by offering developers two remedies if the government does take prohibited actions. One option is the reinstatement of the permit, which is somewhat redundant as courts have already thwarted the Trump administration's attempts to stop wind projects. The other option is a cash payout, allowing the courts to order the government to refund developers between 25 and 50 percent of their project costs.

This payout would come from the Judgment Fund, a bank account used for federal legal settlements, and could lead to significant payouts if the bill passes.

Additionally, the bill includes an anti-discrimination clause that would prohibit the government from treating any particular energy source unfairly. If a wind developer can prove that they were denied permits based on anti-wind bias, they could present this evidence to a judge. If the judge agrees, they could order the government to restore the permit and pay the developer the entire construction cost of the wind farm, but only if the developer completes construction.

Supporters of the bill argue that the financial relief provided by the cash payout provision would encourage investors to return to the renewable energy industry, which has faced turmoil under Trump. This is particularly important for offshore wind, as big companies like Ørsted and Equinor have invested billions in U.S. projects, only to have costs skyrocket and their existing projects threatened by Trump's administration.

However, it remains unclear whether this financial incentive would actually lead to more clean energy projects being built. Critics point out that Trump has already been working to stop renewable power plants from being built, albeit on a smaller scale, by buying back offshore wind leases from developers in exchange for commitments to build fossil fuel projects instead.