China: Coal use reaching peak plateau amid green goals
China’s coal consumption is expected to enter a peak plateau transition during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), following a steady deceleration in growth as the country’s green energy transformation reshapes its economic fundamentals, said a think tank. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), the country’s coal usage was characterized by rising total volume ...
China anticipates its coal consumption will reach a peak plateau phase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30) as the nation transitions towards a greener energy future, according to a think tank. Coal usage has increased and decelerated in growth since the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), with a 4.76 billion metric ton total in 2025, up just 0.1 percent year-on-year.
Coal's share of primary energy consumption fell to 51.4 percent from 53.2 percent in the previous year. During the 15th plan period, China aims to accelerate new energy system construction, promote clean and efficient coal utilization, upgrade traditional industries, and replace poor-quality coal for household use. Coal-fired power generation declined 1.9 percent in 2025, shrinking thermal coal demand by 2 percent.
The steel and building materials sectors, accounting for 15 percent and 6 percent of coal consumption respectively, also saw declines. The coal chemical sector, however, saw a surge in demand, growing more than 10 percent due to new facilities and high chemical product production, representing about 9 percent of total coal consumption.
Coal-fired power is shifting from a primary baseload energy source to a more flexible, backup role, maintaining grid stability while renewables' intermittent nature requires coal's "ballast stone" for reliable grid operation during the near term.
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