Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production Up, Retail Sales Flattish
and Monthly GDP for August, manufacturing production. First, NBER BCDC indicators: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars),…
Business Cycle Indicators indicate that industrial production exceeded expectations in August, while retail sales showed a flattish trend. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee's indicators, including employment figures, industrial production, personal income, and manufacturing sales, all show growth in August. However, when adjusted for inflation, real retail sales remained near flat, as reported in Figure 3 by Census and BLS data via FRED.
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