BoG maintains medium-term inflation forecast of 8 ± 2%

The Bank of Ghana has kept its medium-term inflation forecast at 8% plus or minus 2%, despite a sharp rise in year-on-year inflation in September 2026. This decision comes after the Committee held its third consecutive meeting and expressed worries about external risks stemming from the global economy under relatively stable domestic circumstances.

The Committee noted a surge in headline inflation in August, primarily due to a rise in non-food price increases. However, they observed a slight decline in inflation expectations and core inflation over the same period, indicating a slight easing of underlying inflationary pressures.

After assessing both global and domestic factors, the Committee is confident that headline inflation will return to its target range of 8±2% in the medium term, given that no shocks occur. The Committee highlighted potential upward pressures on inflation, including utility tariff hikes, increasing oil prices at the pump, a stronger US dollar, and the fallout from global supply chain disruptions.

However, they expect these upside risks to be largely canceled out by downside factors like fiscal consolidation, better food supply conditions, and a stable exchange rate. In September 2026, headline inflation climbed to 5.2% from 5.0% in August, while consumer price inflation increased by 1.1% month-on-month, marking a reversal from the previous month's trend. Food inflation climbed to 4.0% in September from 3.0% in August, while non-food inflation slightly decreased to 6.2% in September 2026 from 6.8% in August.