Analysis-SpaceX’s spectrum deal still leaves it far from rivaling telecom giants

SpaceX's recent acquisition of US airwaves has been hailed as a crucial step towards building a mobile network, but analysts warn that creating a genuine competitor to major American carriers will require a significant terrestrial network and years of investment. While Starlink has proven successful with internet service in rural areas and affordable home packages, mobile networks face greater challenges in cities and require extensive ground infrastructure, customer service, handset subsidies, and promotions.

Building such a network could cost over $80 billion, adding to SpaceX's already heavy capital demands as it pursues its Starship rocket program, AI infrastructure, and Terafab chip factory. The big three carriers spent around $650 billion on capital expenditures in the decade leading up to 2023, suggesting that SpaceX's efforts may take much longer to yield results.

Experts note that satellite connections are inherently more challenging due to the vast distance between satellites and Earth, making it unlikely that satellite alone will become the sole source of data. SpaceX has announced plans to deploy up to 15,000 Starlink Mobile satellites and traditional terrestrial infrastructure, aiming for a hybrid approach.

However, even with this extensive investment, analysts are skeptical about SpaceX's ability to match the capacity and performance of established mobile networks within a decade, dismissing the idea as an imminent threat.