WORLD FOOD DAY OP-ED: El Niño, oil shocks and hunger mean SA needs a synchronised food strategy

Geopolitical strife, oil market fluctuations, and an impending El Niño phenomenon pose a significant threat to South Africa's already fragile food system, necessitating coordinated planning across multiple sectors. Conflicts, climate-related disruptions, pandemics, and an unstable economy can have direct, indirect, and ripple effects on the resilience of food production in South Africa.

Similarly, animal- and human-related pandemics impact supply chain dynamics and the economics of food scarcity for various socioeconomic groups. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has notably disrupted access to premium seeds and fertilizers, affecting the grain and oilseed sectors. Meanwhile, tensions between the United States and Iran have directly impacted global fuel costs, particularly diesel availability, throughout food supply chains.

When global oil prices surge, the consequences are most severe for the most vulnerable citizens, particularly in South Africa, where inequality is ranked the highest globally.

Historical events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, have demonstrated how sudden disruptions in logistics, food value chains, and livelihoods can exacerbate food and nutrition insecurity both domestically and internationally, with lasting effects still being felt today. The negative impact of Covid-19 on food security is evident in the increased number of people going hungry compared to pre-Covid levels.

The Covid-19 shock, coupled with lockdown measures, disrupted livelihoods, caused massive job losses, and led to a spike in food prices, leaving a larger proportion of the population unable to afford adequate sustenance. Even with post-Covid lessons learned, South Africa remains trapped in a dangerous cycle of reactive food governance instead of adopting proactive strategies to address food crises during disasters.

South Africa's vulnerability to food crises arises from fragmented and reactive governance rather than individual shocks. Factors such as oil price volatility and the imminent El Niño effect, along with predictions of increased climate-related disasters, create conditions for another impending food crisis. To weather this storm, the country's governance must urgently shift from reactive responses to building systemic resilience and implementing clear disaster risk-reduction planning in its food system.

However, as evidenced in Cape Town, crises can spur innovation in food systems policy. Nonetheless, enhancing South Africa's food system resilience demands a sustained, concerted effort. This becomes increasingly crucial given the escalating impacts of climate change, as evidenced by more frequent extreme weather events like floods and droughts.

The dominance of environmentally destructive agricultural practices that rely heavily on imported inputs and methods, coupled with contaminated water due to insufficient municipal wastewater management and inadequate transportation infrastructure, exacerbates the country's vulnerability.

The primary cause of South Africa's vulnerability lies not in a scarcity of agricultural expertise but in a highly fragmented governance structure. Food security, agriculture, nutrition, trade, water, energy, and social protection responsibilities are spread across various government departments that often operate in silos, hindering a cohesive, coordinated response.

For instance, agricultural policies prioritize production and export competitiveness, while social development structures focus solely on household food access and welfare assistance, with limited integrated planning between the two. Additionally, the lack of alignment between national, provincial, and local government structures often results in duplication, policy gaps, and significant implementation challenges.

The absence of a unified food systems governance framework means that crucial interconnections between water, energy, transport, trade, food, and nutrition are not sufficiently addressed. As a result, South Africa currently lacks a national food and nutrition security plan, as the previous one expired in 2023. Furthermore, the proposed National Food and Nutrition Security Council, responsible for overseeing and coordinating development and implementation, is not meeting the urgent need for action.

When a shock strikes one sector, it sets off a chain reaction across others, and the government and other stakeholders in the food system are ill-prepared to respond in a coordinated manner. Consequently, South Africa's food policy approach tends to be reactive rather than systemic, undermining long-term resilience, inclusivity, and sustainability within the food system.