What To Expect From Joe Musgrove in 2027

As Joe Musgrove prepared to return to the San Diego Padres, the veteran pitcher entered the 2026 MLB playoffs with a history of injury and inconsistent performance. After tearing his UCL in 2024, he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed an entire season before finally returning to the team in October. His early-season struggles led to him missing two full seasons after his injury.

In the 2026 playoffs, Musgrove managed to pitch three scoreless innings in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers, after struggling with command issues in his previous appearance.

Musgrove's pitching ability has evolved over the years, with a notable shift in his pitch mix in 2023. He had previously relied heavily on his four-seam fastball, but after injuries hindered his usage, he increased his curveball usage and swapped his slider for a sweeper. However, his pitch value has decreased each year, going from 14 in 2022 to 11 in 2023 and 0 in 2024.

With San Diego's starting rotation currently limited to JP Sears, Randy Vásquez, and potential ace Michael King, Musgrove may be relied upon more heavily if other starters are not signed. Nevertheless, he should ideally be seen as a back-end option for the Friars, rather than their primary starter. His injury history and inconsistency in the past suggest that lower expectations would be a prudent approach, to minimize disappointment if he fails to meet expectations in 2027.