US fuel prices surge 46% since Iran war, families face $73.5bn extra costs

As the holiday shopping season approaches, US consumers are bracing for a tightening of their budgets due to a combination of factors: tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran, which are driving up the cost of toys. While overall inflation rates are gradually increasing, toy prices have surged by 6.6% in the past year, according to the latest US consumer inflation data.

This price increase is primarily attributed to the fact that the majority of toys sold in the US are manufactured in China, and both the tariffs and oil price fluctuations are taking a toll on toy manufacturers.

David Silverman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, noted that the repercussions of the Iran conflict on commodity costs and shipping costs will likely persist for several quarters to come. In September, prices for apparel and footwear also rose, but the jump in toy prices was more substantial as Americans begin formulating their holiday gift lists. Toy prices increased by 4.2% from August, seasonally adjusted.

The toy industry's exposure to shifting tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration has been a significant concern. President Donald Trump acknowledged in April 2025 that his tariff policies could potentially drive up consumer prices, even suggesting that children might receive fewer toys. His approval rating has plummeted, particularly on economic matters, with only 21% of voters approving of his handling of cost-of-living issues, as reported by a Reuters/Ipsos poll through October 5.

Despite recent tariff reductions, the impact of the higher rates remains evident in the current prices of toys and other goods. The toy industry priced goods for fall based on these tariff rates, and eliminating them now could gradually decrease the cost of toys, assuming other global issues, such as wars causing fuel and raw material price hikes, subside. Major toy companies like Mattel and Hasbro have also faced inflationary pressures due to these events.