Suddenly, Wall Street is worried that the U.S. economy is more ‘vulnerable’ than it looks

A recent survey by the National Federation of Independent Business highlights growing concerns among small businesses about declining sales, signaling a potential vulnerability in the U.S. economy. The index fell to 97.9 in September from 98.7 in August, indicating a slight decline in economic activity. Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen from Pantheon Macroeconomics attribute this drop to a slowdown in activity toward the end of Q3, partly due to rising global energy prices.

However, jobs growth remains sluggish, with Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warning that the economy is "vulnerable" due to minimal hiring outside the healthcare sector and low hours worked. He also expresses concern about the Fed's higher interest rates and their potential impact on AI capital expenditure, which could be adversely affected by increased borrowing costs and declining valuations. Zandi believes that if rates remain elevated for an extended period, AI could become an area of weakness in the economy.

Inflation, currently at 3.7% in September, remains a significant issue. Tiffany Wilding of Pimco attributes this to the ongoing conflicts in two countries, emphasizing the need for these conflicts to end for relief. The Federal Reserve's past failure to address transitory inflation during the pandemic has raised doubts about their ability to handle the current situation, leading to speculation that they may raise rates again in October.

The tech sector has experienced a surge in selling, with major companies like CoreWeave, Oracle, and several chipmakers reporting declines. Despite strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Apple's record market cap, the general sentiment remains bearish. Bond yields have also fluctuated significantly, causing uncertainty in the market as investors grapple with the possibility of a risk premium or the safety of U.S. Treasuries.