Q&A: Expanding climate models to better capture the complexities of public health

In 2013, climate scientists crafted five scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), to illustrate how future socioeconomic development might unfold in different worlds facing varying challenges to climate adaptation and mitigation. These scenarios ranged from a Sustainable world with green energy and reduced inequities to one of Regional Rivalry marred by nationalism and resource conflicts.

The SSPs serve as tools for scientists and policymakers to project the potential effects of our current choices on the future. However, these narrative frameworks have limitations when applied to complex subjects like public health, as they do not account for every nuance.

Last year, a group of 63 experts gathered in Vienna to enhance the SSPs, focusing on public health and health system development over the course of the century. The revised narratives, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, aim to provide more comprehensive visions of possible population health and health system evolution, as well as explore how communities might better prepare for shifting health risks.

UW doctoral student Carole Green, who served as the lead author of the accompanying paper, discussed the shortcomings of previous climate scenarios and the significance of the expanded SSPs with UW News.

The SSPs have been incorporated into global processes, such as United Nations climate conferences, where negotiators strive to build resilience and sustainability in response to climate change. These models help researchers understand the potential interactions between human choices and health impacts. However, the SSPs originally focused on quantifying GDP and population changes, with limited understanding of how future public health could evolve under these scenarios.

Green explained that the complexities of public health must be taken into account, as many factors affecting health outcomes are neither entirely beneficial nor detrimental. Prioritizing sustainability, mitigation, and adaptation does not guarantee the best possible world for health outcomes, as governance, health system capacity, resources, equity, and cross-sectoral factors like water and energy also play critical roles.

For instance, in one scenario, prioritizing technological advancements over reducing greenhouse gas emissions led to substantial wealth but also increased heat-related health burdens and reduced outdoor engagement. Thus, understanding these complexities is crucial for decision-makers to develop appropriate policies.