Oil prices fall as investors weigh supply outlook, Middle East tensions

Oil prices tumbled over $1 in early trading on Thursday as investors assessed threats to supply caused by attacks on maritime routes and US efforts to lower petroleum costs by easing sanctions. Brent crude futures dropped $1.39, or 1.31 percent, to $104.67 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined $1.02, or 1.07 percent, to $94.07. This marked a reversal from the previous day's gains.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude futures had previously reached a three-week high after Houthi rebels targeted Saudi Aramco's headquarters and Iran announced new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to maintain high oil prices. Additionally, a container ship and a dry bulk carrier both sank near the strait in the preceding 24 hours due to projectiles.

Strait of Hormuz attacks have intensified over the past 10 days, with Iran reportedly escalating strikes due to the US blockade of its ports and stricter sanctions introduced last month. The Trump administration is contemplating easing sanctions on certain vessels, known as the shadow fleet, which have transported oil and petroleum products from nations such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela to help mitigate prices, according to a US official.

The latest negotiations revolve around the potential legalization of oil trade on previously sanctioned vessels, a move under consideration by the United States. Russia's crude oil output surged by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day (bpd), although it remains 870,000 bpd below the previous year, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday.

Furthermore, crude oil exports from Middle Eastern Gulf producers increased by 4.4 million bpd in September to nearly 75 percent of prewar levels. In the United States, crude oil and distillate inventories declined, while gasoline stocks rose last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute.