Oil edges lower after hot U.S. CPI; IEA meeting in focus

Oil prices dipped slightly on Thursday due to a stronger dollar following unexpectedly high U.S. consumer inflation, which increased speculation of further interest rate hikes. The focus now turns to the upcoming International Energy Agency (IEA) meeting that could influence the pace at which Europe releases more oil from its emergency stockpiles. Brent oil futures slipped 0.5% to $105.56 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 0.35% to $94.76 a barrel.

Oil losses were somewhat cushioned by industry data indicating U.S. oil inventories fell more than anticipated last week due to disruptions in production along the Gulf Coast. Crude oil retained much of its gains from earlier in the week, as new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis maintained concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Oil prices retreated on Wednesday after U.S. consumer price index data showed inflation was higher than expected for September, which strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields, and led to significant losses in global financial markets.

The sticky inflation data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again before the year-end, a scenario that could curb economic growth and reduce oil demand. Additionally, anticipation of the IEA meeting contributed to the decline in oil prices, as members had pledged to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves earlier this year due to the U.S.-Iran war. Some ministers recently suggested an extra 100 million barrel release.

The IEA warned in a recent report that global diesel markets could remain tight until 2027 due to ongoing supply disruptions and refinery outages. However, the agency projected that overall global oil demand would fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, mainly because of higher prices. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. oil inventories dropped by 11.12 million barrels in the week ending October 9, thanks to Hurricane Isaias disrupting production in the Gulf Coast.

This significant production loss, affecting nearly two-thirds of Gulf production, is expected to be reflected in the official inventory data released later on Thursday.