Muzinich cree que no habrá crisis de deuda en Europa y que es una buena oportunidad para invertir en bonos

Erik Muller, the director of market and product strategy at Muzinich & Co, believes that the current scenario should be seen as a challenging and noisy moment caused by an unfavorable political calendar, but not as a financial collapse. According to Muller, France faces significant structural challenges with rising debt servicing payments reaching 100 billion euros in 2022 and an economic slowdown that has reduced expected growth to just 0.4% in 2026.

Despite potential deterioration in credit quality, Muller still views France as a powerful economy, second largest in the Eurozone and strongly anchored. The key to resolving fiscal difficulties, Muller reminds, is political resolution, which could take time and may not be resolved until mid-year. Currently, Muller does not foresee any intervention from the European Central Bank, as French debt differentials (with German debt) are around 130-140 basis points, offering no conditions for an intervention.

Muller's recent earnings boost has opened up an attractive opportunity for fixed income investors, with the global economic transition caused by three major shocks (energy, AI, and fiscal policies) leading to an adjustment in yields that now offer very generous returns for the next two to three years. The recent rotation of capital from equities to bonds is expected to be a significant catalyst for the fixed income market in the coming months.

Muller currently favors the middle range of the curve and holds positions in bonds with maturities ranging from two to five or six years, and is particularly favorable towards short-term high yield bonds, especially those rated BB or B, and stays away from high yield CCC bonds.