Microsoft Went 240 Trading Days Without a Record Close. History Says What Usually Happens Next.

On October 13, 2025, Microsoft's stock hit a record high at $543.45, marking its first record close since October 28, 2025, when shares closed at $542.07. This spanned 240 trading days without another record close. Historically, Microsoft has experienced this scenario seven other times since its initial public offering in 1986. In five of these instances, the stock increased in value a year after the record close.

However, in two of the cases, the stock declined. One commonality between these two scenarios and the current situation is that both periods were followed by a prolonged wait for another record close. The stock initially plummeted to $352.83 by June 25, a drop of approximately 35% from the last record. It then rebounded by around 54% to reach the current level.

Additionally, Microsoft's earnings per share have risen by 32% to $17.95 for fiscal 2026. This growth in earnings has led to a decrease in the stock's price-to-earnings ratio from around 40 to 30 times earnings at the current record close. Despite the thin nature of the historical pattern, the company's growth trajectory and improved earnings suggest that the current stock price may be justified.