Is possession football dying? The tactical evolution transforming the Premier League
ANALYSIS: Possession has long been the Premier League’s currency but the balance of power is shifting, writes Lawrence Ostlere. In an era of relentless pressing, low blocks and devastating transitions, the team with the ball has never been more vulnerable
Recent trends in the Premier League indicate a shift away from possession-based football towards more counter-attacking and fast transition play. Six teams at the top of the current table average less than 50% possession, with Hull City at just 33%. Brighton's 3-0 win over Arsenal showcased this new trend, recording only 40% possession.
This may be a temporary change, as only six games have been played. However, the correlation between points and possession is weakening. Since 2016, teams that won at least 80 points often had possession rates of at least 60%, but this trend has shifted in recent years. The last season saw more Premier League games won by teams with less possession than Guardiola's City won in his previous seasons.
Liverpool and Arsenal, the current champions, won the league with significantly lower average possession than Guardiola's City. This shift may be due to managers evolving their styles in response to the increasing dominance of low-block teams and counter-pressing. The Premier League is moving towards teams that hunt the ball to force mistakes or sit deep to frustrate opponents. This could signal a long-term trend towards more counter-attacking football and fast transitions.
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