Geldanlage: Die Konkurrenz zwischen Aktien und Anleihen wächst

Investors are increasingly considering bonds over stocks as competition heats up in the financial markets, according to recent reports. Goldman Sachs and Blackrock, two of the world's largest asset managers, have expressed confidence in government bonds, particularly US Treasury securities. The bank's strategists have upgraded US Treasury bonds to "overweight" status for the next twelve months, citing higher ongoing returns and the potential to benefit from a weakening of prices.

Similarly, fund manager Bert Flossbach of Flossbach von Storch has increased his allocation to bonds, highlighting the attractive yields currently available. The bank notes that bond yields have risen to 5.3% for 10-year US Treasuries, a rise of more than one percentage point from the start of the year. German government bonds with the same maturity have reached yields of 3.6%, although recent returns have slightly declined.

Despite some short-term caution, strategists remain optimistic about the long-term potential of bonds. German and British bonds are also seen as attractive, and fund managers are incorporating bond yields into their asset allocation decisions. Blackrock, which had previously been skeptical, has recently increased its exposure to US Treasury bonds, stating that rising yields have moved closer to their long-held expectation of higher interest rates.

The question now remains whether investors will shift more capital from stocks to bonds. CMC Markets' Andreas Lipkow warns of the growing risk. He notes that investor calculations are changing, with high bond yields offering attractive returns while the stock market faces downward pressure. "Should inflation pressure ease simultaneously, government bonds could profit even more," he writes.

The prevailing market view holds that robust growth and high earnings expectations support the stock market, offsetting higher yields. The S&P 500 index, a key US benchmark, has fallen less than two percent below its all-time high, even after recent price drops on Wednesday. However, Goldman Sachs remains cautious, maintaining an overweight position in stocks for the next twelve months, despite the new bond outlook.

Despite these recent developments, the competition for capital is already evident, with Blackrock financing some of its bond purchases by devaluing US stocks. A recent survey by Bank of America found that roughly one in five portfolio managers has already begun shifting capital from stocks to bonds. If yields for 10-year US Treasuries were to reach six percent, it would translate to roughly two-thirds of investors making the move. The shift towards bonds could create a sustainable capital flow towards the bond market.