Fear and Rumors in the Kremlin

The Kremlin's negotiations with representatives of Donald Trump's team remain a mystery to most observers. It is unknown what terms Vladimir Putin would accept to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, or if he would be willing to do so at all in the coming years. Trump's team often overstates their achievements, while the Kremlin's silence fuels uncertainty and rumors.

After CIA Director John Ratcliffe's arrival in Russia, and before meetings between Trump aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv, The Economist published an article claiming that Putin wants to escalate the war against Ukraine. This aligns with his own statements and those of his representatives about achieving the goals of the special military operation, as well as the intensification of strikes on Ukraine.

A source close to Putin reportedly said that ending the war would anger the population and elites, causing their wrath. This claim suggested that Putin fears the elite groups above all. Although there is no widespread discontent or anti-war sentiment within the elites or society, some members of the elite, such as Sberbank CEO German Gref, have expressed war fatigue.

Putin launched the war against Ukraine without public approval or discussion, and has ignored discontent over other issues, like the gasoline crisis. His press secretary recently described the tax increases as "additional burden" that Russian people can endure. When it comes to the American perspective, questions arise about the reliability of sources in ruling circles and the informed nature of those sources.

However, journalists at The Economist and Reuters are unlikely to attribute statements about Putin's mood and personal plans to someone who does not know him well. Sources within the government may have various motives, so their words should be verified against reality. The claim that Putin fears the population and elite ready to continue the war can be tested, but there is no evidence to support this assertion.

Those benefiting from the war, such as influential people loyal to Putin, could find new sources of income if the war ended. The chronology of articles from The Economist and Reuters suggests that sources close to Putin began linking his fears to negotiations with Trump and his team. These sources may have explained Putin's intransigence by citing external constraints, such as fearing the elite and population.

A Kremlin official, Kirill Dmitriev, might have presented external constraints as an explanation for Putin's position. This narrative could help avoid disappointing Trump and preserve Dmitriev's role as the primary contact between the Kremlin and the White House.