EU faces gas shortfall of up to 15% if severe winter hits, report warns
The EU is entering the winter season on thin ice, facing a double-edged geopolitical squeeze that threatens to expose the fragility of its post-Russian energy architecture. Europe could face a gas shortfall of 12% to 15% of demand if a severe cold snap hits this winter, according to a report published on Thursday by the ...
The European Union faces a potential gas shortfall of up to 15% of demand during the winter season, according to a report by the EU's gas transmission operators. This warning comes as gas storage facilities across the bloc stand at just 72% of capacity as of October 1, down from 83% at the same time last year. The report outlines two scenarios assuming no Russian pipeline gas supplies.
The EU has largely phased out Russian gas, except for a few exceptions in landlocked countries like Hungary and Slovakia. In the event of a severe cold snap and the simultaneous halt of pipeline imports from Algeria, the EU would be at serious risk of energy security, as the disruption to the largest offshore gas infrastructure supplying continental Europe would pose a significant threat.
The report urges EU countries to prioritize early-winter storage injections and maintain cooperative behavior to share demand curtailments equally. With Europe's growing reliance on the volatile global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from the US, the report warns that under tight LNG supply conditions, gas storage levels could drop to just 13% by March 2027, potentially forcing energy-intensive industries to cut production.
Concerning the Strait of Hormuz, where a chokepoint controlling 20% of global LNG trade has been severely impacted due to the US-Israeli war against Iran, Europe's vulnerability to global supply crunches is further heightened. While direct European exposure to Qatari gas remains modest at around 8%, primarily affecting Italy, the resulting global supply crunch has caused aggressive bidding wars between Europe and Asia, leading to price volatility.
Southeastern Europe, being more exposed to supply disruptions, could face immediate localized supply shortfalls of up to 12% on peak demand days. In an effort to avoid panic buying and skyrocketing prices, Brussels has given member states temporary flexibility to maintain storage levels at 75%-80% by November 1, as opposed to the usual 90% target.
Currently, the European benchmark for gas trading (Dutch TTF) is hovering between €79.80 and €80.22 per MWh, nearly triple the levels seen since the war against Iran.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
