Energy transition faces critical-minerals crunch by 2035: report
Lithium faces the biggest physical shortfall, while China’s refining dominance leaves other mineral chains exposed.
By 2035, the transition to clean energy may face a shortage of essential minerals, according to GEM Mining Consulting. The consultancy predicts that despite mining's capacity, processing bottlenecks and uncertain forecasts will limit supplies. The report warns that even though graphite and rare earths have adequate projected volumes, their processing is heavily concentrated in China, making their supply chains vulnerable.
GEM emphasizes that a mineral's strategic relevance depends on its ability to be financed, permitted, extracted, processed, qualified, and delivered through a resilient supply chain. The report introduces two measures: the Volume Scarcity Index and the Supply Chain Fragility Index. Lithium, cobalt, and copper are identified as the most constrained minerals by volume, with scores of 80, 65, and 62 out of 100, respectively.
However, when considering supply-chain vulnerability, rare earths and battery-grade graphite emerge as the most vulnerable. GEM suggests that policymakers and investors prioritize bringing new mines online for lithium, cobalt, and copper, while focusing on diversifying processing outside China for graphite and rare earths. The report also highlights that announced project capacity can be misleading due to development and operating risks.
Ultimately, GEM argues that governments and investors should consider factors such as processing infrastructure, financing, permitting, technical performance, and delivery of qualified material when assessing mineral security.
Written by urgent.news from Mining.com's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
