Democrat Threatens Historic Senate Upset in Deep-Red Mississippi

Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is facing a historic upset in deep-red Mississippi after a new poll shows her trailing challenger Scott Colom by just four points. The Wedgewood Polls survey, which interviewed 511 likely voters from October 12 to 14, found Hyde-Smith leading Colom 52% to 48%. The margin of error for the poll is 4.3 points.

This result came after Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," indicating a more competitive contest. The poll's crosstabs reveal an interesting electorate - Colom received 91% support from Black voters and led among younger voters (56% to 44% among those aged 18-29). Hyde-Smith secured 78% of the vote among white voters and 88% among those who voted for President Trump in 2024.

Black voters made up 37% of the weighted sample. The survey was independently designed and funded by Wedgewood Polls, with respondents recruited through an online panel and weighted by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. The findings suggest growing Democratic interest in Mississippi, a state where Republicans have traditionally held the Senate seat.

Democratic donors are reportedly funding the race, viewing it as a potential target. However, the survey only tested two candidates, Colom and Hyde-Smith, while independent candidate Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot. The head-to-head result is thus an incomplete picture of the full contest. If Colom wins, he would be the first Democratic senator elected in Mississippi since 1982, presenting Democrats with an improbable opportunity, though one poll within the margin of error does not establish a clear trend.