Dementia cases are expected to more than double by 2050. A new study reveals who’s most at risk

By 2050, the number of dementia diagnoses worldwide could more than double to 24.7 million, according to a new study by Australian researchers published in JAMA Psychology. Women and individuals residing in low- and middle-income countries are currently more susceptible to the condition, a trend expected to persist. The study's co-author, Henry Brodaty, warns that the projected surge in cases would impose "enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems, and economies around the world."

Brodaty emphasizes the need for urgency in investing in prevention efforts, advocating for actions ranging from reducing modifiable risk factors to improving diagnosis, treatment, and care. The researchers examined data from over 38,000 dementia patients across 18 countries and territories on six continents. They discovered that the incidence of dementia was higher among women—10.6 cases per 1,000 people compared to 8.6 for men—though the disparity was more pronounced in low- and middle-income countries.

In these regions, the incidence was 13.6 cases per 1,000 people, as opposed to 8.3 in high-income countries. The study's senior author, Perminder Sachdev, underscores the significance of recognizing populations most at-risk for developing dementia to devise effective prevention, diagnosis, and care strategies. Sachdev notes that the higher incidence observed in low- and middle-income countries is particularly alarming, as these regions are experiencing rapid population aging while often lacking the resources for prevention, diagnosis, and care.

The World Health Organization estimates that as of 2021, there were 57 million people worldwide living with dementia, making it the seventh leading cause of death. In 2019, dementia cost economies around the world approximately $1.3 trillion. Dr. Liron Sinvani, director of research and innovation at the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging, stresses that the new research underscores an accelerating epidemic that demands immediate attention, especially as the countries that will face a massive increase in dementia cases also have limited infrastructure to respond.

Sinvani emphasizes that dementia care necessitates substantial caregiver support and incurs significant costs, and a robust infrastructure will be crucial to meet the rising demand for diagnosis and care.