BoE's Pill says a rate hike need not be start of long series

The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, stated on Thursday that a future interest rate hike should not be seen as the beginning of a prolonged series of increases by investors. "We shouldn't give the impression that because we act now, we are on another staircase… like we saw in 2022 and 2023. It's a different shock," Pill said during a panel discussion at the Bangkok Economic Festival, which took place alongside International Monetary Fund meetings.

On Wednesday, Pill had previously dismissed market predictions of four rate hikes within the next year. Unlike the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the BoE had held interest rates steady since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict in February. However, markets anticipate a quarter-point increase following the upcoming meeting.

Pill reiterated his concerns that Britain is susceptible to "insidious" catch-up dynamics in inflation, as workers demand wage increases to offset price rises. "You probably need to have more of a prolonged period of restriction to squeeze that," he added. Higher bond yields in advanced economies likely reflect, at least in part, a rise in the real neutral rate of interest required to stabilize inflation, another indicator pointing towards the necessity for higher rates.