As airstrikes in Gaza continue, support for 'armed resistance' grows, Hamas popularity drops - poll

A recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reveals a shift in Palestinian sentiment regarding armed resistance and statehood. While 53% of Palestinians surveyed support a two-state agreement with Jerusalem as the capital, only 48% in Gaza expressed support for such an arrangement. The survey, which polled 909 Palestinians in the West Bank and 488 in Gaza, had a margin of error of 3.5%.

41% of respondents cited Israeli settlement expansion as the main obstacle to Palestinian statehood, with 23% attributing it to internal Palestinian divisions. In Gaza, support for armed resistance increased from 21% to 37% compared to a previous August poll, indicating a growing acceptance of militant action. Diplomacy remained the preferred option, with 42% backing it, followed by 18% supporting nonviolent resistance.

Despite this rise in support for armed resistance, 62% of Palestinians polled believe neither Israel nor Hamas emerged victorious in the conflict. Furthermore, 69% in Gaza and 78% in the West Bank expect Israel to withdraw from Gaza before Hamas disarms. However, 61% of Palestinians surveyed expect insecurity to persist following the ceasefire.

Partisan affiliations have also evolved. Only 19% of Palestinians identify with Hamas, down from 24% in August and 35% a year ago. Less than a quarter (22%) support Fatah, while 33% have no preference for any listed party.

Abbas has pushed back the Palestinian Authority elections scheduled for November 28, with 53% of respondents supporting the original date, 21% favoring a postponement of under six months, and 20% opposing the elections altogether. Voter turnout intention is estimated at 55%, but only 31% of young citizens aged 18-22 are registered to vote, with their voting intention at just 46%.

Independent candidates, such as Bashar Masri and Mustafa Barghouti, are gaining traction. Masri received 22% of support, tied with Marwan Barghouti's list, while Mustafa Barghouti garnered 29% of trust in his ability to manage Gaza's economic recovery and cost of living. However, confidence in senior Palestinian Authority figures remains low, with only 6% trusting Hussein al-Sheikh and 8% trusting Jibril Rajoub.