US elections: Races to watch in the 2026 midterms

The 2026 midterms present a number of races to watch, particularly for minority and Muslim Americans. With the administration cracking down on refugees and immigrants, punishing criticism of Israel and pro-Palestine sentiment, and employing anti-Muslim language, the stakes are high.

Three in 10 Americans now approve of President Donald Trump's conduct during his first two years. In the Senate, the Democrats seek to flip the fortunes they are currently outnumbered 47-53. One key race is the Michigan contest between Democrat Abdul el-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. If el-Sayed wins, he would become the first Muslim elected to the Senate.

In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico, with the latter potentially making a big gain for Democrats due to Paxton's legal troubles and controversial policies. Maine's race could see Democrat Troy Jackson unseat Republican Susan Collins, who is critical of Israel's actions in Gaza.

In Iowa, Democratic candidate Josh Turek is up against Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, with Turek emphasizing opposition to taxpayer funds going to countries that violate international law. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is leading over Republican incumbent Jon Husted, though the race remains close. Brown has not changed his position on backing Israel, despite the party's shifting views.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority. Democrats need to flip at least three to five seats to have a measurable impact. New York's 17th District Congressman Mike Lawler is at risk, having been won by President Joe Biden's running mate Kamala Harris in 2024.