Trump's Russian diesel deal offers little relief for Americans — and a political win for Moscow

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on October 9 that Washington would purchase millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel, claiming this deal would lower gas prices for ordinary Americans. Russia is set to supply over 300,000 tons immediately, followed by another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons shortly after. Trump's statement is far from the truth, experts warn.

The initial shipments are small and unlikely to significantly lower prices in the long term. Although Trump hopes for a midterm boost, the Kremlin is the only one to benefit from this deal. The strain on U.S.-Ukraine relations is increasing as Ukraine pauses its successful drone strikes against Russia’s oil infrastructure. Global diesel prices are soaring due to the U.S.-Iran war, which has disrupted oil tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz and increased security costs.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has had a greater impact on global diesel and gasoil supplies than Ukrainian drone strikes, with exports from the Persian Gulf falling by 152 million barrels between March and August. However, Ukrainian drone strikes have also affected Russia’s oil refineries, causing a 20-year low in crude oil production and a 30% drop in diesel production.

While Trump’s deal might trigger a small drop in diesel prices, it is unlikely to last due to the small volume of shipments relative to global energy demand.