Tinubu must beware: Osun panic strategy may backfire

In the world of politics, strategy plays a crucial role. However, a strategy that aims to benefit only one individual is unlikely to succeed, according to the author of this report. This is what they believe is happening in Osun, where a plan to deliver 1.5 million votes to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 election is causing concern.

The author warns that trading party loyalty for a mere figure is not advisable. The idea of securing 1.5 million votes for Tinubu was first mentioned shortly after the APC lost the August 15 governorship election in Osun. The National Secretary of the party, Senator Ajibola Basiru, has also repeated this claim. The author believes this strategy was likely plotted by some individuals within the Presidency and national officials of the party.

Despite these concerns, the author urges Tinubu and his supporters to be cautious. They point out that every election is local, and what works in one region may not work in another. Historically, Osun has never exceeded one million votes in any presidential election, and it's unlikely to happen again. The author also notes that voter turnout varies in presidential and governorship elections.

They question where the 1.5 million votes for Tinubu are coming from. The author advises Tinubu and Oyetola to tread carefully and watch the situation closely. They speculate that the President is being portrayed as anxious about the 2027 presidential election outcome. The emergence of Adeleke as the Osun Coordinator for the President is seen as part of this strategy to tie him to his promise of delivering Tinubu at the polls.

However, the author believes that the President and the party leadership should allow Osun APC to have its own structure to drive the election. They caution that the APC at the national level and the Presidency must not disregard the emotions of the majority of party members in Osun. The author cites Drew Westen, who argues that in politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion usually wins.

They also reference Adam Smith's Rational Choice Theory, suggesting that voters' decisions are influenced by self-interest. The author believes that if Osun APC's members feel they are being used, they may not commit to Tinubu's re-election. They urge the President and his handlers to consider the interests and sentiments of voters in Osun.

The author concludes by suggesting that if the APC wants to cover any deficit from Oyo State, they should not do it by playing politics with people's emotions in Osun. They believe that with the right approach, Governor Seyi Makinde can still show understanding and strengthen the political relationship for the benefit of the South West.