The winners and losers of the new H-1B era

The new H-1B reality reveals distinct winners and losers. The Trump administration's proposals target various legal immigration pathways, including the H-1B visa for highly skilled foreign workers and the OPT student work authorization after graduation from a U.S. university. Vice President JD Vance recently announced a crackdown on green card pathways for workers at tech firms like Microsoft and Adobe.

Business Insider's "H-1B Fallout: 1 year later" series examines how skilled foreign workers navigate these changing immigration policies. By analyzing H-1B application data from the first three quarters of the last three fiscal years, the series identifies clear winners and losers.

The wage-weighted H-1B cap selection favors high-salary, highly specialized workers. Employers with ample cash and employees with in-demand skills gain a relative advantage in the increasingly uncertain H-1B regime. The US issues 85,000 H-1B visas annually, but demand consistently exceeds supply. Applications in the March 2026 H-1B lottery dropped more than 38% from the previous year.

Tech employers, particularly those heavily invested in generative AI, are among the biggest winners. They are well-positioned to navigate the current environment due to their robust immigration policies and compliance programs. Tech giants like Nvidia, Anthropic, and OpenAI have seen their certified H-1B applications skyrocket, reflecting how closely tied hiring changes are to broader economic trends.

Small startups, however, face significant challenges. Without the financial resources or legal departments to contest the $100,000 H-1B fee, these companies are likely to suffer, potentially stifling innovation in the startup sector.