Security Worries Reshape Russia’s September Oil Exports

In September, Russia exported 142.7 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products, according to Windward analysis of Vortexa data. Of this, 110.4 million barrels were crude, with a daily average of 3.7 million barrels, close to the prior month's figure of 3.78 million bpd reported by the IEA. The remaining 14.9 million barrels were clean products, primarily naphtha (9.8 million barrels) and fuel oil and feedstocks (17.4 million barrels).

For the third month in a row, no tankers were flagged falsely, indicating Russia has ceased this practice. Ships from sanctioned countries carried 78 million barrels, or 55% of total exports, and 63% of crude. EU-owned tankers handled 31.5 million barrels, or 22%, with the rest transported by unsanctioned shadow fleet or other vessels.

This distribution varies by product, with EU-owned ships carrying 57% of fuel oil and 41% of clean products, but only 14% of crude. The majority of EU-owned barrels (28.8 million of 31.5 million) were loaded at Baltic ports, including Primorsk, Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg, and Vysotsk, where they comprised 37% of all lifted crude. EU-owned loadings decreased throughout the month, from 20.5 million barrels in September 1-15 to 11.1 million in September 16-30, a 46% drop.

This decline is attributed to the export ban on gasoline and diesel following attacks on Ukrainian refineries in April. Meanwhile, EU-owned tankers carrying diesel entered the Baltic region, with no diesel cargoes loaded after September 12. Sanctioned vessels dominated Black Sea and Far East crude loadings, with 68% of 7.4 million barrels lifted from the Black Sea on sanctioned tankers.

Arctic crude moved almost entirely on sanctioned tonnage, accounting for 84% of Murmansk crude loadings. Ship-to-ship transfers obscured the trail of 11.6 million barrels, with Nakhodka Bay handling 8.7 million barrels via transfers, most of which was delivered to China.