Sachsen-Anhalt: „Explosives Regierungsgemisch“ – Forscher warnen vor schwer kontrollierbarer AfD-Fraktion

In Sachsen-Anhalt, the Institute of German Economy (IW) warns of potential conflicts within a future AfD government. This stems from the analysis of researchers Knut Bergmann, Matthias Diermeier, and Dan Muncaster titled "Direct Mandates: When the Besom Wins." Diermeier notes on LinkedIn, "When the proverbial besom wins, the most radical candidates emerge."

These candidates may attract support in their respective districts but lack interest in necessary compromise-making within government. This poses a risk, as Diermeier describes it as "explosive government mixture." The AfD secured 43.8% of votes in the September 6th state election, ending with 39 out of 83 seats short of an absolute majority.

Party leader Ulrich Siegmund announced his candidacy for premier in December, which requires at least 42 votes. The AfD's 39 directly elected members are predominantly strong in their local constituencies rather than party directives. This makes them harder to discipline by party leadership. Five directly elected AfD politicians never even stood on the party's list, therefore not having the party's seal of approval.

This scenario resembles similar conditions in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where 22 out of 32 AfD members were directly elected without a party list. The 2025 Bundestag election saw the AfD win 42 of 45 direct German seats outside Berlin, with 12 lacking a party list and several already in disputes with the faction leadership, including Maximilian Krah.

Krah, a former attorney from Dresden, has been involved in court cases and security reports related to the AfD, often linked to Russia and China. In the 2024 European election, the AfD top leadership imposed a ban on Krah, causing him to leave the federal executive. In his home state of Saxony, known for its right-extremist classification, he remains supported.

Diermeier argues that common unity within a faction typically maintains cohesion in opposition, but in government, conflicts can escalate rapidly. The researchers compare this to the U.S., where only 43 out of 435 districts were considered competitive for the House of Representatives. In 1999, this number was 101. These closely contested districts are referred to as "swing states."

Increasingly, radical candidates from the Trump-inspired MAGA movement are winning these races, drawing support from their base but potentially hindering government work. The October 2023 example of Kevin McCarthy being ousted from the House by a parliamentary vote demonstrates how internal party strife can block governance. In Sachsen-Anhalt, the AfD might face a similar test.

If the situation gets out of control, it could create an "explosive government mixture," warns the IW.