Paul Tudor Jones predicts significant oil rally amid US-Iran conflict

Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones anticipates oil prices to increase by $20 to $25 per barrel due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, potentially exerting considerable strain on equity markets, CNBC reported. In an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, Jones expressed his continued optimism for oil, highlighting the minimal chance of a resolution to the conflict prior to the US midterm elections in November.

On Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at around $92.50 per barrel. A rally of this scale would propel prices above their 2026 closing peak of nearly $113. Jones cautioned that an additional surge in energy prices would pose significant difficulties for equities, although US stocks have thus far shown resilience to oil market volatility.

The S&P 500 only declined by over 7% at its March low following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28, a smaller loss than analysts had predicted given the extent of the initial oil price rise. Prices peaked in early April before dropping below $70 per barrel in June. Recovery commenced in July as tensions escalated in the Middle East and uncertainty persisted regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital pathway for global oil supplies.

Crude prices soared to almost $106 per barrel in September before retracting. In addition to energy markets, Jones also foresees challenges for equities in 2027, potentially arising from initial public offerings from major technology companies, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which would augment the share supply available to investors.

While he perceives limited prospects for a diplomatic resolution before the November elections, Jones proposed that President Donald Trump might attempt to negotiate an end to the conflict following the vote, contending that the present situation is improbable to endure in the long run.