Natural Gas: Prices extend 2026 rally – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights European natural gas 1‑month TTF futures surging to 86.81 EUR/MWh, the highest level since 2023, after rising more than €60 from 2025 lows. Strategist Florence Schmit stresses growing European reliance on LNG ahead of the planned full phase‑out of Russian gas from 2027, with weaker October LNG exports from the Middle East and softer LNG arrivals into Europe.
Rabobank's Global Daily reports that European natural gas 1-month TTF futures have surged to 86.81 EUR/MWh, the highest level since 2023. This increase marks a rise of over €60 from 2025 lows. Rabobank strategist Florence Schmit attributes this surge to Europe's growing reliance on LNG ahead of the planned full phase-out of Russian gas by the beginning of 2027.
Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, continues to cloud the outlook for gas flows. Schmit highlights that this development also intensifies competition with Asian buyers and the JKM market. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern LNG exports are expected to be lower in October compared to September, even accounting for unreported or "dark" transits, while LNG arrivals into Europe have already weakened this month.
The article emphasizes the implications of having energy access controlled by a war occurring thousands of miles away.
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