More expensive gas, semiconductors likely pushed up inflation last month

Inflation likely worsened in September, according to a government report scheduled before the midterm elections clouded by affordability concerns. Consumer prices are anticipated to have risen 3.6% in September compared to a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, as per an economist survey by data provider FactSet. The Labor Department will release the report on Wednesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices are expected to have risen 0.6% from August to September, a significant jump since April and the highest since April.

The surge in inflation is largely attributed to the Iran war's impact on gas prices and persistent inflation, which has risen since the war began in late February. Elevated inflation has posed political challenges for Republicans and is a concern for the Federal Reserve, which aims for stable prices. Public approval for President Trump's handling of the cost of living and the economy has dropped significantly, with only 17% approving of his cost of living management and 26% approving of his economic management.

Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core prices likely increased by 2.5% in September from a year ago, up slightly from 2.4% in August. This figure is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, but it has remained near that level since January, following the Iran war. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh expressed concern that inflation isn't declining quickly enough to meet the central bank's target, leading to the first rate hike in three years to about 3.9%.

However, some key Fed officials suggest the central bank could delay further rate hikes. The Federal Reserve will convene for a policy meeting on October 27-28, but most Wall Street analysts anticipate no further rate increase and potential hikes in December. Fed officials aim to mitigate the impact of supply shocks, such as the Iran war-induced disruption in oil and gas supplies, which is already causing a 23% increase in air fares from a year ago and forcing businesses to pass costs to consumers.

Companies like PepsiCo have already raised prices for snack foods due to higher costs for fuel, aluminum, and food ingredients.