More expensive gas, semiconductors likely pushed up inflation last month

Inflation likely worsened in September, according to a survey of economists. Consumer prices are forecasted to have risen 3.6% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in August. Monthly price increases were expected to be 0.6%, up from 0.4% in July, marking the largest jump since April.

The Labor Department will release the report on Wednesday. Elevated inflation has been attributed to the Iran war's impact on gas prices and the persistent nature of inflation, which has risen since the conflict began in late February. Even after excluding food and energy categories, core prices likely rose 2.5% in September from a year ago, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.4%.

Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring inflation data to determine if further interest rate hikes are necessary. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation is too high and has remained elevated for too long, causing the Fed to raise rates for the first time in three years to around 3.9%. However, some Fed officials suggest the central bank could wait before increasing rates again.

Higher borrowing costs aim to slow spending and growth, thereby cooling price increases. However, much of the current inflation stems from supply shocks, such as disruptions to oil and gas supplies due to the Iran war. Rising gas costs have already led to a 23% increase in airfares since last year. Gas prices have jumped about 9% from August to September, contributing significantly to the overall inflation increase.