IMF forecasts 2.2% GDP growth in Brazil in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted 2.2 percent growth for Brazil's economy in 2026, according to its World Economic Outlook report released on October 12. This projection is lower than the previous estimate of 2.4 percent, which was published in July. The IMF also predicts a decrease in growth for 2027, dropping to 1.9 percent from the previously forecasted 2.2 percent.

The slowdown in economic growth is attributed to high interest rates, the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and global uncertainties. Brazil's Selic rate, which is the main tool for controlling inflation, currently stands at 13.75 percent, down from 15 percent in March 2026. The IMF's inflation projections for Brazil indicate a 4.4 percent rate for 2026 and 4.1 percent for 2027, both within the government's target range of 4.5 percent.

The report also analyzes commodities, including oil and agricultural products, highlighting the impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and increased grain prices due to adverse weather conditions. The IMF projects a 6.2 percent unemployment rate for Brazil in 2026, with 6.8 percent expected in 2027.