How Trump’s disaster aid delays and FEMA cuts could galvanize the ‘movable middle’ in the 2026 elections
In communities across America, people recovering from floods, storms and wildfires have been left waiting much longer for federal aid – if it arrives at all.
The Trump administration's delays in providing federal disaster aid and cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) workforce have led to frustration among voters in the U.S. In March 2026, a tornado in rural southwest Michigan prompted a request for federal disaster aid, which was denied. Hurricane Isaias, which struck the Florida Panhandle on October 7, 2026, further exacerbated the issue, as the country continues to experience record-breaking weather events.
After a year of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, flooding, and storms, Americans are left waiting for aid, if it arrives at all.
Cuts to FEMA have hindered federal disaster help, with the agency facing significant funding and staff reductions since January 2025. The administration initially sought to abolish FEMA, arguing that states and communities could handle disasters independently. However, a judge later found this plan unlawful. FEMA has lost over 17% of its trained staff members in 2025 alone, leaving communities struggling to recover on their own.
The Trump administration has also withheld billions of dollars meant to help states reduce disaster risk and protect infrastructure from storm damage. Despite lawsuits forcing the administration to restore some of the funds, many communities still lack adequate assistance. The administration's approval of emergency funding after disasters has also slowed, with a 26% denial rate in 2025, up from an average of 15% over the previous two decades.
As a result of these changes, there may be political consequences in the upcoming midterm elections for the slow aid and lack of government assistance. Studies have shown that people who have experienced a disaster often become more civically engaged, with the strongest effect seen in political moderates, also known as the "movable middle." These individuals could potentially swing in either political direction if they have reason to do so, making them an important group to mobilize during the 2026 elections.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
