GRS perlu atur strategi tambah kerusi pada PRU16

Setiausaha Agung GRS Armizan Mohd Ali has said that simulations based on PRN Sabah 2025 results indicate the alliance has the potential to win more than 15 parliamentary seats. Meanwhile, political analysts from Universiti Malaya say GRS has reasons to be optimistic about their performance in PRN, which shows wider support in non-metro and coastal areas.

Awang Azman Pawi highlighted Kudat, Kota Belud, Beaufort, Kimanis, Beluran and Kota Marudu as key battlegrounds for GRS to expand their control. Kudat is seen as a potential victory, with GRS aiming for Banggi, Pitas and Tanjong Kapor, which are currently held by independent candidates. Kota Belud, a former GRS stronghold, could also become more attractive with Upko's addition to the alliance.

The combination could bring together their strength in Tempasuk and Upko's influence in Kadamaian. Beaufort, currently held by BN, is another potential target if GRS wins both DUN seats in the Kota Belud-Kuala Penyu parliamentary area in PRN 2025. GRS also controls all three DUN seats in the Beluran area — Telupid, Sugut and Labuk — giving them an edge in the effort to snatch the DUN seat from Perikatan Nasional (PN).

In Kota Marudu, currently held by KDM, GRS controls Matunggong and Tandek, while Bandau is represented by an independent. In Kimanis, which is held by BN, GRS controls Membakut and Warisan controls Bongawan. The challenge is greater in Kinabatangan and Lahad Datu — both strongholds of BN — and could be considered a second-tier target, according to Awang Azman.

However, GRS needs strong candidates and a political landscape that supports them to snatch both seats. In Kinabatangan, GRS holds Kuamut, while BN holds Lamag and Sukau. In Lahad Datu, GRS holds Sungai Manila, while Warisan controls Gum Gum and Sungai Sibuga. However, Awang Azman reminds that GRS' main priority should be retaining the existing Parliament — particularly Ranau, Sipitang, Batu Sapi and Tawau — which may not be safe due to the difference in voter patterns between PRN and PRU.

Strategic cooperation Bilcher Bala from Universiti Malaysia Sabah said seven parliamentary seats are held by BN and five by PH, both of which are partners in the GRS-led state government, creating a strategic dilemma for GRS. He said joint campaigning with both blocs could increase the number of seats GRS can win, but warned that it could also limit the number of seats GRS can contest and win on its own.

He said winning 10 to 12 seats outright is easier if GRS agrees to a shared seat arrangement with BN and PH. "However, to achieve 15 seats, GRS needs either to contest and win some BN and PH seats or get permission for their allies to contest under one political umbrella, so that their wins are counted as a GRS-led bloc victory," he said.

According to Bilcher, the first option risks splitting the vote and giving an advantage to Warisan, STAR, KDM or independent candidates, while the second option requires extensive consultation on leadership and seat distribution. Bilcher said GRS' focus should not only be on the number of seats won outright, but also on the wider state-level bloc strength.

He also identified Tenom and Putatan as potential battlegrounds that could be won. GRS won Kemabong, one of Tenom's two DUN seats, while in Putatan, GRS won Tanjung Keramat, while Warisan controls Tanjung Aru and Petagas, which are held by independent.