Global copper surplus to more than triple by 2027: ICSG
Refined metal output is set to rebound next year as new smelting capacity comes online, outpacing consumption growth.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts that the global refined copper surplus will more than triple by 2027, reaching 368,000 tonnes, up from the current 104,000 tonnes. This significant increase is attributed to a faster rebound in smelter production compared to demand growth. The surplus forecast rise is from 96,000 tonnes in April's estimate.
The widening surplus is due to a recovery in refined copper production after concentrate shortages limited smelter output this year. Despite demand from sectors like electrification, artificial intelligence, and data centers, global refined copper production is only expected to grow by 0.4% in 2026 before accelerating by 3.4% in 2027.
The recovery will be driven by smelter and refinery expansions in Indonesia, India, and the European Union, along with improved operating rates in Chile and increased production from scrap. Copper mine production is forecast to grow by 1.3% this year, down from April's 1.6% projection, due to downward revisions in Chile, China, and Indonesia.
However, it will accelerate to 3.1% in 2027 as operations recover in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, output improves in Chile and Zambia, and new capacity comes online. The ICSG warns that its forecasts are sensitive to supply disruptions and geopolitical events, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, which could impact both production and consumption.
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