FMI: la abultada deuda deja a los países sin margen para afrontar futuras crisis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that mounting debt burdens have left countries with little room to maneuver in the face of future crises. In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the IMF projects that global debt could reach 100% of global GDP by 2029-2030, a situation unprecedented since the aftermath of World War II. The Fund's warnings come amid a series of crises, including inflationary pressures, higher bond yields, and the impact of the Ukraine war, Covid pandemic and the development of artificial intelligence.

The IMF's concern is that the increasing debt load is leaving countries with limited fiscal space to respond to future economic shocks, especially in a geopolitical climate that demands more defense and energy security spending, and where an aging population is consuming substantial public resources. Furthermore, the IMF notes that this is also reducing the capacity for public investment and social spending.

The IMF urges governments to urgently address their large deficits and growing fiscal imbalances, stating that delaying this adjustment would make the situation more painful. Daniel Valdes, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, emphasized that the situation is urgent and must be addressed immediately, as changing conditions have emerged.

While emerging economies are typically the most vulnerable, the risk extends to developed economies as well. For instance, the IMF predicts that the United States' interest payments on its debt will increase from 2.8% of GDP in 2022 to 5.7% in 2031, equaling the projected spending on Social Security, its largest social program.

The IMF advises concrete measures based on credible mid-term plans and realistic assumptions, such as containing government spending, strengthening debt management, reforming tax systems to optimize revenues, and enhancing economic activity without undermining revenue sources. The IMF suggests that different countries may need to adopt different strategies.

For instance, China should invest more, the United States should save more, and Europe should focus on investment. However, it is worth noting that Spain is currently not the red flag of Europe. Spain's deficit is projected to be 2.1% this year, the lowest among the major economies, compared to Germany's 3.8% in 2027, which is expected to rise to 4.2% and stay close to 4% until 2031.

France is expected to have a 4.9% deficit in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, but according to the IMF, it will reduce to 2.9% by 2031. Italy will have the highest public debt at 138.4% of GDP this year, followed by France at 118.4%, Spain at 98.2%, and Germany at 64.6%.